From January to February 2022, the total social logistics volume in China was 51.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2% based on comparable prices. The growth rate of the total social logistics volume continued the rebound trend since the fourth quarter of last year, and was significantly higher than the level before the epidemic in 2019, indicating that the overall logistics demand is still in a recovery channel and the operation of logistics has started steadily.
From a structural perspective, the policy effect of expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption continues to emerge internally, and the demand for industrial and consumer logistics continues to grow rapidly; Externally, the global economic cycle has not yet returned to normal levels, and the demand for import logistics continues to decline.
Industrial logistics demand is growing rapidly, and new driving forces continue to strengthen
After the holiday, enterprises resumed work and production in an orderly manner, and the demand for industrial logistics maintained a rapid growth. From January to February, the total amount of industrial logistics increased by 7.5% year-on-year, which is 1.4 percentage points faster than the average growth rate of the two years from 2020 to 2021.
From a structural perspective, new driving forces continue to exert force, enhancing their support for industrial logistics demand. The high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industries continue to grow rapidly. From January to February, the total logistics volume of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industries increased by 14.4% and 9.6% year-on-year, respectively, with growth rates accelerating by 2.3 and 3.4 percentage points compared to December of the previous year.
From an industry perspective, the computer communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, pharmaceutical manufacturing industry, and instrument manufacturing industry have all achieved double-digit growth, with growth rates accelerating month on month. In addition, the automobile manufacturing industry grew by 7.2% year-on-year, an increase of 4.4 percentage points compared to December of the previous year. Among them, the production of new energy vehicles increased by 150.5% year-on-year, continuing to grow rapidly on the basis of the previous year's multiple growth.
The recovery of people's livelihood consumption logistics demand accelerates the sustained development of new business models
From January to February, driven by online promotional factors such as the "Online New Year's Goods Festival", the demand for manufacturing logistics of consumer goods on the production side accelerated, while the demand for logistics such as e-commerce and online shopping on the sales side remained hot. From the production side, the consumer goods manufacturing industry is accelerating its recovery. From January to February, the logistics demand of the consumer goods manufacturing industry increased by 9.7% year-on-year, which is 5.2 percentage points faster than the average growth rate of the two years from 2020 to 2021.
From the sales side, the new business model still has a significant supporting effect. From January to February, the total logistics volume of goods for units and residents increased by 10.5% year-on-year; Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 12.3% year-on-year. The e-commerce logistics index shows that the year-on-year growth rate of e-commerce logistics business in the first two months exceeded 25%, and the growth rate of rural business is also close to 25%, maintaining a rapid growth trend.
The incremental decrease in import prices and the continuous decline in logistics demand
Since the fourth quarter of last year, international commodity prices have continued to rise, which has had a certain impact on China's related imports. Data shows that from January to February, the import logistics volume decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline. But it should also be noted that the decline in import logistics volume has narrowed compared to the previous year. With the gradual recovery of China's economy and supply chain in the future, the import scale will also expand.
From the perspective of import structure, the import volume of crude oil, coal, lignite, and steel has all decreased due to factors such as significant price increases in bulk commodities, with cumulative year-on-year declines of 4.9%, 14.0%, and 7.9%, respectively; The demand for meat imports in agricultural products continues to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 33%.
Expansion of logistics market scale and acceleration of industry integration
The logistics market continues to expand in scale, and industry integration is accelerating. Since 2021, the scale of the logistics industry market has continued to expand, and the total revenue growth rate of the logistics industry has also maintained a relatively high level. From January to February, the total revenue of the logistics industry was 1.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, faster than the pre pandemic level in 2019.
With the development and growth of new momentum, the structure of logistics demand is constantly changing, and higher requirements are being put forward for logistics services. Especially since the epidemic, the transformation and upgrading of the logistics industry have significantly accelerated, and the logistics market has entered a period of accelerated integration. The proportion of revenue of the top 50 logistics companies in China has risen to the highest level in recent years, and the overall concentration of the industry has steadily increased. Segmented fields such as leading express delivery companies have further promoted industry concentration through mergers and acquisitions. According to data from the National Postal Administration, the CR8 concentration index for express delivery and parcel service brands from January to February was 85.3, a significant increase compared to the entire year and the same period in 2021.
The transportation business is growing rapidly, and logistics enterprises are operating more efficiently. In terms of physical quantity, the total social freight volume in February increased by 15.5% year-on-year, with road freight volume increasing by 21.1%. From the perspective of enterprise business, the total business volume index did not decrease but increased in February, with an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month to 51.2%. Since February, driven by factors such as resuming work and production, the physical volume and business volume of the logistics industry have maintained a good growth trend, while logistics has maintained relatively efficient operational efficiency. The capital turnover rate index and equipment utilization rate index in the logistics industry prosperity index in February both increased by 0.1 percentage points month on month, maintaining above 50% for six consecutive months, reflecting the initiative of enterprises to improve the efficiency of capital utilization and improve the efficiency of logistics equipment operations. This has played a certain regulatory role in the tight balance between personnel supply and demand in the first two months of the year.
Overall, the macroeconomic recovery trend continued in the first two months of this year, and the growth rate of logistics demand scale remained at a good level. From the perspective of market demand and expectations, the new order index and business activity expectation index in the logistics industry prosperity index are 50.2% and 59.7%, respectively, higher than last month. Among them, the business activity expectation index has been operating in a high prosperity range for two consecutive months, indicating that logistics companies have a positive outlook for industry development.
But it should also be noted that since March, there has been an increase in unstable and uncertain factors, making it more difficult for the logistics industry to ensure the stability of the industrial and supply chains.
From the external environment, the impact of the epidemic in some regions is still ongoing, and the development level of various industries and regions is uneven. At the same time, geopolitical conflicts are still ongoing, which may lead to difficulties in cross-border logistics channels in the European direction, tight transportation capacity, rising freight rates, and increased pressure on key commodities to maintain supply and stable prices due to supply chain shocks. It is necessary to track and analyze closely.
From the perspective of market vitality, the operating costs of logistics enterprises are increasing, and the pressure of rising raw material and labor costs has increased. The overall recovery foundation of the industry needs to be further stabilized:
One is the weak linkage between logistics service prices and costs. Although the cost of raw materials such as oil prices continues to rise, logistics service prices have not seen a significant increase. In February, the service price index in the logistics industry prosperity index did not increase but decreased by 0.2 percentage points. The prices of road logistics and coastal bulk cargo fell month on month, indicating that in the current context of homogeneous competition in freight services, the bargaining power of the industry is low, and there is a certain lag in the linkage between costs and logistics service prices.
Secondly, the profitability level of the industry is further under pressure. Key survey data shows that the logistics business costs of key logistics enterprises increased by 17.3% year-on-year from January to February, with a cost of 90.7 yuan per 100 yuan of operating revenue, an increase of 1% year-on-year, and significantly higher than the average level of industrial enterprises above designated size. Among them, influenced by factors such as rising commodity prices and structural labor shortages, fuel costs and labor costs have risen by more than double digits respectively. From the perspective of profitability, key logistics enterprises suffered losses of nearly 30% from January to February, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating an increase in operational pressure on logistics enterprises, leading to further compression of profit margins. The overall revenue profit margin is around 3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year. Among them, small and medium-sized logistics enterprises have suffered more significant losses, with a profit margin of less than 3%, lower than the same period last year, and a significant gap compared to large and medium-sized enterprises.